14. Mechuka

Independent held the seat; the winning margin narrowed from 10.2% to 4.3%.

• Won on a lower shareIts own vote share fell 5.5% — it held because the rest of the vote was more divided.
• Vote fragmentedThe top two took only 66.9% between them, down from 72.1% — the field split more ways.

Written from the constituency figures by a fixed set of rules — no language model.