6. Keirao

MRP held the seat; the winning margin narrowed from 19.9% to 18.9%.

• Won on a lower shareIts own vote share fell 3.6% — it held because the rest of the vote was more divided.
• Vote fragmentedThe top two took only 77.8% between them, down from 84.0% — the field split more ways.

Written from the constituency figures by a fixed set of rules — no language model.