38. Baroda

Indian National Lok Dal held the seat; the winning margin narrowed from 17.4% to 4.3%.

• Won on a lower shareIts own vote share fell 17.2% — it held because the rest of the vote was more divided.
• Vote fragmentedThe top two took only 65.5% between them, down from 86.8% — the field split more ways.

Written from the constituency figures by a fixed set of rules — no language model.