15. Gwalior

Bharatiya Janata Party held the seat; the winning margin narrowed from 14.9% to 7.7%.

• Won on a lower shareIts own vote share fell 13.1% — it held because the rest of the vote was more divided.
• Vote fragmentedThe top two took only 60.6% between them, down from 79.5% — the field split more ways.

Written from the constituency figures by a fixed set of rules — no language model.